by Andrew Buhr
This Saturday night’s pay-per-view will feature one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world (Lyoto Machida) against the former Pride Grand Prix Champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Unbelievably, Rua is a 3-1 underdog on the sports betting websites. Of course, since gambling is illegal in the United States, you cannot take advantage of it (*wink *wink). I think this line is too high. In his prime, Rua is one of the deadliest strikers in the light-heavyweight division and the toughest challenge for Machida to date. Machida did defeat a then-undefeated Rashad Evans for the title in his last fight, but Evans is a very inconsistent fighter and was not prepared for the aggressive defensive style of Machida. Let’s take a look at each fighter to better determine who has the upper hand.
The Dragon Is Here
Machida’s undefeated record is not what makes him such a scary fighter. Machida’s biggest advantage is his unique fighting style. You might think that a fighter who practices karate would get his ass kicked by these strong, beefy wrestlers. The problem with that thinking is that no one fights like Machida. Much like Brock Lesnar, you cannot recreate what this guy does in practice. While it may seem that Machida is always defensive, he is always looking for that one mistake to go on the attack. The problem is if you’re too defensive, he’ll kill you too. People forget, he’s beaten Rich Franklin and BJ Penn in addition to Evans and Tito Ortiz. Machida is second only to Anderson Silva in successful strikes and second only to Georges St. Pierre in takedown-defense. He also varies his strikes well by attacking the body and legs almost a third of the time.
Will Shogun connect?
The big mystery is: What if Machida doesn’t take an opening and gets hit. Shogun is probably the most deadly knockout artist in the light-heavyweight division. 15 of his 18 wins are by knockout and he has knocked out a lot of legends, including Rampage Jackson (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKWyJg4sI6s) and Chuck Liddell. His greatest achievement was winning the Pride 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix by defeating Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Mark Coleman and Alistair Overeem in the finals. His one blemish was a submission loss to Forrest Griffin, but that loss can be blamed on a knee injury he suffered prior and during the fight. He is healthy now and should not be as big of an underdog as he is.
And the winner is……
I really think Shogun can win this fight. He is in the best shape of his life and has a lot to prove. A fighter who has the skill and motivation that Shogun does is even more dangerous. Because Wanderlei Silva was Middleweight Champion of Pride at the time, Shogun was unable to contest since they were on the same team. Many people are down on him, but forget that he was the #1 light heavyweight in the world two years ago. Watch his fights against Rampage Jackson where he dominated his will and tell me he can’t win this fight.
Machida will PROBABLY win this fight. But, you cannot forget how this much fame can affect a fighter. Look at what happened to Chuck Liddell as a prime example. Once you start appearing on shows and not have as much time to train, it can be a negative uinfluence. If I had to bet on it, I would take Shogun as such a big underdog. They have never fought fighters like each other, which is why this could be the best title fight of the year. Since this is a five-rounder, this fight has virtually no chance of going to a decision so we will have a clear cut winner by knockout.
BOLD PREDICTION: SHOGUN by knockout
CAIN VELASQUEZ (6-0) vs. BEN ROTHWELL (30-6)
This is, without a doubt, the biggest opportunity for Cain Velasquez in his lifetime. A win here would solidify his spot behind Minotauro Nogueira for a shot at Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar. His victory against Cheick Kongo was so impressive because Kongo rocked him a bunch of times and he still took him down and pounded him. It wasn’t the most impressive victory in the world, but he still won. Rothwell outweighs him by about 30-35 pounds so it will be harder to take him down. If he tries, he can’t miss because Rothwell has a huge fist. I really think Rothwell could have beaten Arlovski if they didn’t stand them up in the second round. After they were stood up, Arlovski went on the attack and badly damaged Rothwell. He ultimately knocked him out in the third round, as Rothwell was gassed at that point.
This should be a very good fight in the standup department, as is the main event. I just cannot see what Rothwell can do if Velasquez can get him on the ground. Because of that, my prediction is:
VELASQUEZ: TKO (Strikes)
No comments:
Post a Comment