Fantasy Football Trade Value (The Sweet SIX-TEE)

by Andrew Buhr

This is the first installment of the Fantasy Football Trade Value column. This list is not meant to gauge how well a player might do in the future or even how poorly that player has played. It is supposed to gauge a player's value in terms of trading. For example, if you had Maurice Jones-Drew, you should not trade him for any player below him. You should trade him for Peterson since Peterson is above him.

Fantasy football is trickier than the other sports because players accumulate stats in a variety of ways in football, more so than in the other sports. With that said, this list should be used as a guideline when speaking of player value in a vacuum. This means that if you had no worries about positions, then this list should be used as is. There are positional rankings within this list to assist you. Enjoy.

Player	Description
1. Adrian Peterson (RB1)	On pace for 1800 APY and 18 TDs and as consistent as it gets
2. Maurice Jones-Drew (RB2)	Slightly behind AP due to reputation and inconsistency
3. Chris Johnson (RB3)	NFL's leading rusher only third due to inconsistency
4. Cedric Benson (RB4)	Averaging 15.5 PPG; It is time to forget the past
5. Peyton Manning (QB1)	You know you're getting 20+ PPG when he is in your starting lineup
6. Reggie Wayne (WR1)	The best QB's go-to-guy and main offensive weapon
7. Ray Rice (RB5)	The biggest leap of all thanks to being given the full-time job in Baltimore; can he continue his torrid pace?
8. Frank Gore (RB6)	When Gore is healthy, he is a monster
9. Randy Moss (WR2)	The NFL's best deep threat is tied to Tom Brady's health
10. Drew Brees (QB2)	Even when he's off, he puts up huge fantasy numbers (ex. Wk. 7 @ Miami)
11. Larry Fitzgerald (WR3)	If Boldin is out, his value goes through the roof
12. Tom Brady (QB3)	Tom looks like he's back with 9 TDs and 688 yds. in last two games
13. Andre Johnson (WR4)	NFL's leading receiver only down due to recent lung injury
14. Michael Turner (RB7)	Not getting as many yards but has scored a TD in six straight games
15. DeAngelo Williams (RB8)	Stewart stealing touches, but 469 APY and 3 TD in last 3 games
16. Steven Jackson (RB9)	Only 1 TD this season, but is 2nd in the NFL in rushing and is the Rams' only option
17. Thomas Jones (RB10)	Not a flashy name, but has 433 yds. rushing in last 3 games; Jets' main option due to Washington's injury and a rookie QB
18. Vincent Jackson (WR5)	Rivers' main option in a pass-heavy attack
19. Aaron Rodgers (QB4)	#1 Fantasy QB is an injury risk with a suspect line
20. Ronnie Brown (RB11)	Led NFL in rushing last year before injury; scored in 3 of last 4 before last week's stinker
21. Calvin Johnson (WR6)	Recent injury is a concern, hopefully, he can rebound in a woeful offense
22. DeSean Jackson (WR7)	A threat to run, catch and return has led to 616 APY and 6 TDs
23. Philip Rivers (QB5)	While not the Chargers' best month, December is Rivers' month
24. Matt Forte (RB12)	Only reason he has value was off of his draft position, if you can get the next 5 players for him, do it
25. Roddy White (WR8)	Finally connecting in the Falcon offense with 4 straight games with a TD
26. Marques Colston (WR9)	Brees' main man has 323 yds. and 3 TD in last 3 games and is finally healthy
27. Wes Welker (WR10)	Most underrated receiver in fantasy has 343 yds. and 4 TD in last 3 games
28. Miles Austin (WR11)	Hottest stock in fantasy; a ridiculous 482 yds. and 5 TD in last 3 games proves he's for real
29. Matt Schaub (QB6)	Leads the NFL in passing despite two subpar outings
30. LaDainian Tomlinson (RB13)	Along with Forte, get what you can for him; hopefully, his reputation can get you something
31. Tony Romo (QB7)	What a resurgence! Was borderline droppable after Week 4; since, 918 yds. and 8 TDs in last 3 games and hoping Roy Williams stays off the field
32. Dallas Clark (TE1)	Has slowed slightly since his big game, but you cannot get any more consistent than Clark
33. Ricky Williams (RB14)	Pre-season worry about timeshare with Brown has proven false with 13.8 PPG
34. Ryan Grant (RB15)	Underrated value as Green Bay's sole carrier will give you anywhere from 9-13 PPG
35. Chad Ochocinco (WR12)	The Cincy resurgence continues with Chad finally returning to form
36. Brandon Jacobs (RB16)	A disappointment due to lack of TDs, must stay healthy or is a complete waste
37. Ben Roethlisberger (QB8)	Fantasy value finally catching up to real life value as he is 6th in fantasy QB PPG
38. Steve Smith (NYG)(WR13)	After a hot start, has 0 TDs in last 4 games with cold weather coming
39. Marion Barber (RB17)	A huge injury risk, but is a workhorse when healthy
40. Donald Driver (WR14)	Seems to have supplanted Jennings as Rodgers' go-to-guy in a pass-heavy offense
41. Hines Ward (WR15)	Mr. Consistent was NFL's leading receiver until last week's dud
42. Pierre Thomas (RB18)	The timeshare with Bell is a downer, but is still capable of having 15-20 point games
43. Carson Palmer (QB9)	Was an average fantasy QB after last week's 5 TD outburst
44. Steve Slaton (RB19)	Still awaiting word on his job status; a shocking benching last week has his value at an all-time low
45. Rashard Mendenhall (RB20)	Still getting the bulk of carries, but timeshare looms when Parker is healthy
46. Antonio Gates (TE2)	Is getting the yards, but not the scores
47. Brian Westbrook (RB21)	The injured list's all time games leader is suffering from what may be the worst, a concussion and a talented backup
48. Ahmad Bradshaw (RB22)	A thorn in Jacobs owners is getting a good number of goal-line touches; if Jacobs were to ever get hurt, hmmmm.....
49. Joe Flacco (QB10)	Flacco is on the rise and has a TD pass in every game this season and is only getting better
50. Anquan Boldin (WR16)	Perennial injury risk has only 1 TD this season and has Breaston on the sidelines
51. Vernon Davis (TE3)	Leads the NFL in receiving TDs with 7; like Cedric, it's time to forgive as he is Alex Smith's favorite target
52. Joseph Addai (RB23)	Value rises if Brown remains out, but still gets 15-20 touches a game regardless
53. Kevin Smith (RB24)	Has had a terrible season with only 3.1 YPC, but will get touches and yards
54. Mike Sims-Walker (WR17)	A disappointing last week, but remains the only receiving threat on the Jaguars; has 398 yds. and 3 TDs in his other 4 games
55. Greg Jennings (WR18)	Last three weeks have been semi-encouraging; Jennings is a top-ten receiver when he is on top of his game
56. Brandon Marshall (WR19)	Has his ups-and-downs, but his potential might be limited in the conservative Denver offense
57. Donovan McNabb (QB11)	Ninth in QB PPG, but the injury risk looms with the fantasy playoffs coming
58. Brett Favre (QB12)	Is having a miraculous comeback year, but can he continue in November and December?
59. Clinton Portis (RB25)	Doesn't deserve this spot, but is Washington's only ray of hope
60. J. Cutler (QB13)	Having a terrible season, but at least INTs only count as -1

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Yankees vs. Phillies

by Gregory H. Kim

And so it comes down to this. These two teams were 1 and 2 in home runs in the regular season and both play in bandboxes of a stadium. Both feature players that are basically unpitchable at this moment (A-Rod and Ryan Howard). These teams are widely considered to be the best in their respective leagues. They met in the regular season at Yankee Stadium; with the Phillies taking 2 out of 3. After a few recent duds, this World Series should be close and involve some good action. All types of fans will enjoy it...well, except maybe for those Mets fans, who...well...yea. (Editor's note: Typical Yankee Snob :))

The Role Players

Both of these teams are loaded with superstars, from Howard, Utley, and Rollins to A-Rod, Jeter, and Teixiera, who will and have produced in the post-season in key moments. Also, these teams also have secondary stars who could be middle-of-the-order hitters for other teams (Ibanez, Werth, Victorino and Posada, Damon, Matsui), so the lineups figure to counter-balance each other. It would not be shocking if one of these games was turned by an unknown character hitting a big three-run HR when one of these pitchers takes a break from one of the big stars. Feliz, Ruiz, Francisco, Melky, Swisher, Cano? Who will be the hero?

Say it ain't So, Joe

Much has been made about Joe Girardi and his ridiculous binder, as well as Charlie Manuel's curious decision to send all of his possible Game 3 starters out of the bullpen in Game 2 of the NLDS. So, the question isn't "Which manager will make a brillant move?", rather it's "Which manager won't screw this up?" I am continually puzzled by Girardi's incessant pitching changes and pinch running decisions. Really, is it smart to take out Alex Rodriguez who is playing out of his mind for Freddy Guzman (who, by the way, is barely faster than A-Rod and probably peeing in his pants) when A-Rod could easily come up again in the game. Or take out a lefty for another lefty after one batter. The list goes on and on. Add a National League park and National League rules and you have the potential for disaster. CC Sabathia pinch-hitting in the 10th, come on down! On the other side, Charlie Manuel looks like he's asleep half the time. And the decision to go with Pedro at Yankee Stadium in Games 2 and 6...let's just say that Pedro 5 years ago had some issues there.

Slamming the Door

Can you guess who is number one all-time in closing out a postseason series? Yes, it's Mariano. Can you guess who number two is? None other than the revitalized Brad Lidge. Ok, so it's clear that this stat is meaningless, but what it does show is that both of these guys have been here before. In a series with two patient and powerful lineups, it's clear that both bullpens are going to get some major work here. As a fan of either team, that should scare the living crap out of both teams. For the Yanks, apparently Joba the bullpen pitcher is now the same as Joba the starter and Phil Hughes looks like well..a 23 year-old kid. As for the Phillies, as much as I love Chan Ho Park showing the world that Asians can grow facial hair (yes, I'm an Asian who can't) (Editor's note: he can't), Park, Madson, or any of those other guys do not scare me. So, it comes down to this, can Mariano nail down nine out saves or can Brad channel his inner 2008, and not his disastrous 2009.

Cleveland Rocks, Cleveland Rocks

Games 1, 4 and 7 could feature a matchup of ex-Cleveland Cy Young winners in C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee. Both of them have been just ridonk in the playoffs, with C.C. going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA in three appearances and Cliff going 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA in three starts. In a series where many are predicting home runs left and right, these two guys might be the only starters with any chance of keeping the ball in the yard. Look for the guy that wins this best-of-three to take their team to the promised land.

So who wins?

To tell you the truth, this series looks, feels, and smells like a seven-game classic. Power hitting, small ballparks, and shaky pitching (outside of the aces) makes for some 8-6, 9-8 extra-inning types of games. Both bullpens and managers look suspect. Will the Phillies go back and repeat or will the Yankees end the "curse" of Mike Mussina (he's the only guy I can blame that has been here from 2001 to 2008)? In the case where it's a toss-up, I'll go with the X-factor. I'm a Yankee fan*, I can't help it.

Yanks in 7

*Ok, so my X-factor is really the closers, and in this case, Mariano goes 2 innings and the Yanks win in the 9th off a Walk Off HR by Jorge Posada (no one is dumb enough to pitch to ARod in that situation.)

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WANTED: GRAND LARCENY AT UFC 104

by Andrew Buhr

What happened last night at UFC 104 has the MMA message boards running out of bandwidth. The popular opinion is that Shogun Rua was robbed of the Light Heavyweight title. What is even more shocking is that this fight even went to a decision. The decision surely shocked everyone in attendance as they booed the decision and Machida during his post-fight interview and gave a rousing ovation to Shogun during his interview. Even Dana White went so far as to say that he thought Shogun won the fight. Let's clear up one misconception: Dana White has no more power than you or I when it comes to these decisions, or referees for that matter. So, please give him a break. He was just as pissed off as you and I at this decision. But, let's step back and take a brief round-by-round look at the fight.

Round 1: Both fighters spent the round feeling each other out. Shogun got a lot of hard kicks in and landed a right hook to the side of Machida's head. Machida landed the same brutal knee that crippled Tito Ortiz in their fight. This was a real close round. I can't see any way you could give the round to Machida, but I could see 10-9 for Shogun. So, if you thought Machida did well in Round 1, you would have to go 10-10. I would go 10-9 Shogun.

Round 2: If you didn't know before, these guys can take some brutal shots to the midsection. Machida is starting to look a little more perplexed. Not too much action, but being a five-round fight, both fighters are wary of making a huge mistake. Shogun spent the end of the round kneeing Machida in the legs against the cage. This round was the definition of a tie. 10-10.

Round 3: The first three and a half minutes were spent still feeling each other out. Shogun is landing some real hard kicks to the midsection forcing Machida to switch stances. Machida started a flurry at the end of the round where he landed a bunch of punches. Replays showed that Shogun landed a couple of hard punches to the face while countering. That last flurry, you could argue, won Machida the round. I thought it earned him a tie, but I could see Machida winning that round. 10-10.

Round 4: Shogun landed a ton of hard kicks to Machida's midsection and a hard knee. Interestingly, Shogun is throwing very few punches to the head and is employing the same strategy that Forrest Griffin used to cut down Rampage Jackson. Machida looked very downtrodden at the end of this round. He is not used to fighting this long. This round is easily 10-9 for Shogun.

Round 5: So far, Machida is losing this fight. If you look at the fight without scorecards, you would say Shogun is winning the fight. His body language is better and he looks better. Scoring-wise as well, Shogun is probably winning the fight. So, Machida really needs to go after it this round to win the fight. At best, he is losing so far. Shogun clearly won Round 5 continuing the theme of brutal leg kicks mixed in with some flurries. It is really strange that Machida showed no sense of urgency. At the horn, Shogun raised his hands and jumped around sensing his victory. If you look at Machida's hand raise, it looked so half-hearted. Then, we know what happened next.

Machida looked completely shocked when Bruce Buffer announced him as the winner. Machida and his corner looked like they caught a miracle card on the river at the World Series of Poker. That is not the type of look that makes me think he thought he won the fight. This nonsense that you have to beat the champion to win the title has no basis within the rules of MMA. The premise is that fighters fight for a specified number of rounds. If no one wins by KO or submission, then each round is looked at objectively and the scores are added together to determine a winner. There is no such thing as a champion's bonus. Machida made some candy ass remarks during his interview: That three judges thought he won the fight, so tough shit everyone. You wouldn't respond that way if you thought you won.

Shogun's strategy was a smart one and should have won a decision. How can three out of three judges give it to Machida? I could maybe, MAYBE, see a split decision towards Shogun. Crazy. No fighter, however, made an effort to decisively win the fight. Both fighters have agreed to a rematch. I can't wait for this one. By the way, this should put an end to Lyoto's talk of fighting Brock Lesnar. I think we all know he would get his ass kicked in that one.

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UFC 104: MACHIDA (15-0) vs. SHOGUN (18-3)

by Andrew Buhr

This Saturday night’s pay-per-view will feature one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world (Lyoto Machida) against the former Pride Grand Prix Champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Unbelievably, Rua is a 3-1 underdog on the sports betting websites. Of course, since gambling is illegal in the United States, you cannot take advantage of it (*wink *wink). I think this line is too high. In his prime, Rua is one of the deadliest strikers in the light-heavyweight division and the toughest challenge for Machida to date. Machida did defeat a then-undefeated Rashad Evans for the title in his last fight, but Evans is a very inconsistent fighter and was not prepared for the aggressive defensive style of Machida. Let’s take a look at each fighter to better determine who has the upper hand.

The Dragon Is Here

Machida’s undefeated record is not what makes him such a scary fighter. Machida’s biggest advantage is his unique fighting style. You might think that a fighter who practices karate would get his ass kicked by these strong, beefy wrestlers. The problem with that thinking is that no one fights like Machida. Much like Brock Lesnar, you cannot recreate what this guy does in practice. While it may seem that Machida is always defensive, he is always looking for that one mistake to go on the attack. The problem is if you’re too defensive, he’ll kill you too. People forget, he’s beaten Rich Franklin and BJ Penn in addition to Evans and Tito Ortiz. Machida is second only to Anderson Silva in successful strikes and second only to Georges St. Pierre in takedown-defense. He also varies his strikes well by attacking the body and legs almost a third of the time.

Will Shogun connect?

The big mystery is: What if Machida doesn’t take an opening and gets hit. Shogun is probably the most deadly knockout artist in the light-heavyweight division. 15 of his 18 wins are by knockout and he has knocked out a lot of legends, including Rampage Jackson (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKWyJg4sI6s) and Chuck Liddell. His greatest achievement was winning the Pride 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix by defeating Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Mark Coleman and Alistair Overeem in the finals. His one blemish was a submission loss to Forrest Griffin, but that loss can be blamed on a knee injury he suffered prior and during the fight. He is healthy now and should not be as big of an underdog as he is.

And the winner is……

I really think Shogun can win this fight. He is in the best shape of his life and has a lot to prove. A fighter who has the skill and motivation that Shogun does is even more dangerous. Because Wanderlei Silva was Middleweight Champion of Pride at the time, Shogun was unable to contest since they were on the same team. Many people are down on him, but forget that he was the #1 light heavyweight in the world two years ago. Watch his fights against Rampage Jackson where he dominated his will and tell me he can’t win this fight.

Machida will PROBABLY win this fight. But, you cannot forget how this much fame can affect a fighter. Look at what happened to Chuck Liddell as a prime example. Once you start appearing on shows and not have as much time to train, it can be a negative uinfluence. If I had to bet on it, I would take Shogun as such a big underdog. They have never fought fighters like each other, which is why this could be the best title fight of the year. Since this is a five-rounder, this fight has virtually no chance of going to a decision so we will have a clear cut winner by knockout.

BOLD PREDICTION: SHOGUN by knockout

CAIN VELASQUEZ (6-0) vs. BEN ROTHWELL (30-6)

This is, without a doubt, the biggest opportunity for Cain Velasquez in his lifetime. A win here would solidify his spot behind Minotauro Nogueira for a shot at Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar. His victory against Cheick Kongo was so impressive because Kongo rocked him a bunch of times and he still took him down and pounded him. It wasn’t the most impressive victory in the world, but he still won. Rothwell outweighs him by about 30-35 pounds so it will be harder to take him down. If he tries, he can’t miss because Rothwell has a huge fist. I really think Rothwell could have beaten Arlovski if they didn’t stand them up in the second round. After they were stood up, Arlovski went on the attack and badly damaged Rothwell. He ultimately knocked him out in the third round, as Rothwell was gassed at that point.

This should be a very good fight in the standup department, as is the main event. I just cannot see what Rothwell can do if Velasquez can get him on the ground. Because of that, my prediction is:

VELASQUEZ: TKO (Strikes)

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DODGERS vs. CARDINALS PREVIEW

by Jorge Feliz

This series pits the two powerhouses of the National League facing each other. They both had very easy paths to the playoffs, having amassed huge leads in the beginning of the season in their divisions. The Cardinals won the season series 5-2.


Will Chad Billingsley show up?

The Cardinals throw out two Cy Young contenders in this series. If the Dodgers want to compete, Chad Billingsley must return to being the Billingsley he was in the first half of the season ( 9-4, 3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), instead of the second half imposter (3-7, 5.20 ERA, 1.48 WHIP). There is no recent evidence, however, to suggest that Billingsley will return to form.

Who wins the battle of the pens?

While the Cardinals enjoy a clear advantage in starting pitching, the Dodgers bullpen was a half-earned run better over the course of the season than the Dodgers. Nevertheless, two interesting stats appear. Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin’s ERA rose from 0.79 in the first half, to 3.33 in the second half. The Dodgers’ Jonathan Broxton had problems of his own. Broxton posted a microscopic 0.40 RA at home, but a bloated 5.81 ERA on the road. As a Dodgers fan, how confident would you be with a one run lead in the ninth in St. Louis with Fat Albert coming up?

Manny vs. Albert

Due to injury and perhaps controversy, Manny didn’t live up to his name this year. Pujols, on the other hand, is going for his third MVP award. However, who can forget Manny’s 2008 postseason? Every ball he hit seemed as though it were launched from a cannon. If Manny returns to his 2008 form, the depth of the Dodgers’ lineup will effectively counter the Pujols/Holliday power punch.

And the winner is……..

Since neither of these teams have an advantage in hitting nor defense, it will come down to pitching. I don’t expect Billingsley to figure out his problems now. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright’s mastery coupled with Broxton’s ineffectiveness on the road leads to doom for the Dodgers.

Cardinals in 4 Read more...

RED SOX vs. ANGELS PREVIEW

by Gregory Kim

These two teams are familiar foes, having met in the postseason in the last two years. The Red Sox took care of business both times, 3-0 and 3-1. This year, the Angels took the series 5-4 in a closely played series with six of the games decided by one run or less. The Angels have home field advantage, as they are the winners of the AL West and the Red Sox claimed the AL Wild Card. As an avid Yankees fan, both of these teams scare me for different reasons. The Red Sox are scary for their short-lived air of superiority over the Yanks and the Angels for their knack for beating the Yankees every year. So who will come through and take the victory this year?

Can the Sox slow down the Angels' speedy running game?

Over the years, I have watched the Angels take first to third on Johnny Damon’s arm repeatedly and steal second base vs. Jorge Posada with repeated success. The Angels are known for pushing the envelope and their aggressive running style, ranking 3rd in MLB in stolen bases. The Sox have been one of the worst teams in throwing out base runners stealing bases, having caught only 23 base runners while giving up 151 SB for an atrocious (league worst) 13% success rate. If you also take into account the weak arm in CF, that is Jacoby Ellsbury, it looks like the Angels could have a field day on the base paths. It will be key for the Red Sox pitchers to keep runners off the base paths because Varitek and Martinez won't be throwing anyone out.

Is Josh Beckett OK?

Beckett has been the heir to the throne of the "Curt Schilling" Postseason Pitching Ace Award having compiled a 7-2 record with a 2.90 ERA (including two World Series titles). However, he has had an up and down season, being dominant at times and downright pitiful at times. On top of that, Beckett was pushed back in his last start due to back stiffness. Beckett is slated to start Games 2 and 5 in the ALDS on regular rest. Also, even though Jon Lester is slated to start Game 1 as the proverbial ace of the Red Sox, it is clear that the Sox will only go as far as Beckett takes them. If Beckett is on, the Red Sox will be difficult to stop. However, no one really knows his status.

Angels Bullpen vs. Fenway Park

In August, there was a big controversy as closer Brian Fuentes complained that the umpires were scared to call strike three vs. the Red Sox not once, but twice, in the ninth inning in a game the Angels went on to blow. I am not a big fan of defending the Red Sox in any situation. Even though I did see this game and agree that the calls were suspect at best (c'mon, it's Boston we're talking about), home field advantage is part of the game and an already shaky bullpen could be in big trouble if rattled by the Fenway Park atmosphere. Seriously, do the names Brian Fuentes, Jose Arredondo, Jason Bulger, Darren Oliver and the artist formerly known as Scot Shields really scare you? I think not.

Bottom Line

On paper, this series looks like it should be a fairly easy victory for the Red Sox. The pitching, matchups and postseason history all favor the Sox. The big difference, however, is that this Angels lineup is significantly different then past Angels lineups. The underrated addition of Bobby Abreu has changed the Angels from a free-swinging lineup to a disciplined lineup; with a league-ranked third OBP of .350. In addition, major concerns about the health of the Sox starting pitching and their ability to hold on runners could make the difference in this series. I'm going to go with the home field advantage, and predict that the Angels will shed the proverbial monkey off their back, showing that the "third time's the charm."

Angels in 5 Read more...

PHILLIES vs. ROCKIES PREVIEW

by Andrew Buhr

As someone who happens to own almost all of the Phillies on my fantasy team this year, I feel very qualified in relating my experience with all of you. The Phillies won the season series 4-2. What does that mean? You guessed right: NOTHING! Also, have you heard how hot the Rockies have been as they have won 20 out of their last 31 games? That must mean that the Rockies have a lot of momentum going into this series. You guessed wrong again. OK, so what are the real issues in this series? I’m glad you asked.

Can a pitching staff more unpredictable than AIG’s stock provide stability?

This series is more about the Phillies’ issues than anything the Rockies can do. I cannot remember one team’s pitching staff going through so much turmoil. Cole Hamels is starting in Game 1 and Cliff Lee is starting in Game 2. I would assume that Joe Blanton would get Game 3 and Pedro Martinez would take Game 4. For all of Cliff Lee’s prowess after the trade from Cleveland, he is 2-4 with a 6.13 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. Believe it or not, but Joe Blanton might be their most reliable starter. He had a streak of 13 straight quality starts snapped on September 10 and he is a workhorse. The Phillies are in a tough spot because Pedro Martinez is probably not going to get out of the fifth inning in Colorado and J.A. Happ has pitches 11.1 scoreless innings against Colorado this season.

Can the Phillies protect a three, two, one OK ANY LEAD?!?!?

One quick story: I went to a Phillies game versus the Mets a few weeks ago. The Phils had a 5-2 lead going into the ninth inning. Here begins the Brad Lidge experience. If you did not follow sports, you would have thought that the crowd noise would indicate the fans’ support for this guy. It was akin, however, to rooting for the Washington Generals or the Mets. You knew what was going to happen. After giving up two runs, the crowd couldn’t fake any more encouragement and “Lights Out” Lidge lived up to his nickname as Ryan Madson was brought in. After his perfect season last year, he has become the Vice President of the Shelled Closers Relief Fund along with Armando Benitez and Mark Wohlers. That is how bad it has become. The Phillies bullpen will be THE story of this series and I think it will end with Casey striking out.

Do the Rockies have enough pitching depth?

The Phillies, however, benefit from the Rockies’ shallow pitching depth. After ace Ubaldo Jimenez pitches, what is left are average starters and against a lineup that has the potential to score runs in a hurry, that is a scary proposition. The Rockies do not have many questions going into this series. Everyone knows what to expect out of them. They have an average lineup that cannot score enough runs to support their average starters after Jimenez. The Phillies have a huge advantage in power pitching because no one is going to be afraid facing the like of Marquis and Hammel.

Bottom Line

For all of the questions that the Phillies have, the postseason is about a good pitching staff shutting down lineups. While you would never bet the mortgage on any one Phillies game, you cannot discount what a huge advantage that Hamels/Lee/Blanton have over Jimenez/the pu pu platter. If the Rockies do not win Game 1, they are screwed. They need to win Game 1 and try to steal one of the next three. I am guessing Brad Lidge will never see the light of day in any game with a run differential less that seven. Wouldn’t it be great if Charlie Manuel decided to give J.A. Happ a chance to close since he probably will not start? But, hey, what the hell do I know?

Phillies in 4 Read more...