RED SOX vs. ANGELS PREVIEW

by Gregory Kim

These two teams are familiar foes, having met in the postseason in the last two years. The Red Sox took care of business both times, 3-0 and 3-1. This year, the Angels took the series 5-4 in a closely played series with six of the games decided by one run or less. The Angels have home field advantage, as they are the winners of the AL West and the Red Sox claimed the AL Wild Card. As an avid Yankees fan, both of these teams scare me for different reasons. The Red Sox are scary for their short-lived air of superiority over the Yanks and the Angels for their knack for beating the Yankees every year. So who will come through and take the victory this year?

Can the Sox slow down the Angels' speedy running game?

Over the years, I have watched the Angels take first to third on Johnny Damon’s arm repeatedly and steal second base vs. Jorge Posada with repeated success. The Angels are known for pushing the envelope and their aggressive running style, ranking 3rd in MLB in stolen bases. The Sox have been one of the worst teams in throwing out base runners stealing bases, having caught only 23 base runners while giving up 151 SB for an atrocious (league worst) 13% success rate. If you also take into account the weak arm in CF, that is Jacoby Ellsbury, it looks like the Angels could have a field day on the base paths. It will be key for the Red Sox pitchers to keep runners off the base paths because Varitek and Martinez won't be throwing anyone out.

Is Josh Beckett OK?

Beckett has been the heir to the throne of the "Curt Schilling" Postseason Pitching Ace Award having compiled a 7-2 record with a 2.90 ERA (including two World Series titles). However, he has had an up and down season, being dominant at times and downright pitiful at times. On top of that, Beckett was pushed back in his last start due to back stiffness. Beckett is slated to start Games 2 and 5 in the ALDS on regular rest. Also, even though Jon Lester is slated to start Game 1 as the proverbial ace of the Red Sox, it is clear that the Sox will only go as far as Beckett takes them. If Beckett is on, the Red Sox will be difficult to stop. However, no one really knows his status.

Angels Bullpen vs. Fenway Park

In August, there was a big controversy as closer Brian Fuentes complained that the umpires were scared to call strike three vs. the Red Sox not once, but twice, in the ninth inning in a game the Angels went on to blow. I am not a big fan of defending the Red Sox in any situation. Even though I did see this game and agree that the calls were suspect at best (c'mon, it's Boston we're talking about), home field advantage is part of the game and an already shaky bullpen could be in big trouble if rattled by the Fenway Park atmosphere. Seriously, do the names Brian Fuentes, Jose Arredondo, Jason Bulger, Darren Oliver and the artist formerly known as Scot Shields really scare you? I think not.

Bottom Line

On paper, this series looks like it should be a fairly easy victory for the Red Sox. The pitching, matchups and postseason history all favor the Sox. The big difference, however, is that this Angels lineup is significantly different then past Angels lineups. The underrated addition of Bobby Abreu has changed the Angels from a free-swinging lineup to a disciplined lineup; with a league-ranked third OBP of .350. In addition, major concerns about the health of the Sox starting pitching and their ability to hold on runners could make the difference in this series. I'm going to go with the home field advantage, and predict that the Angels will shed the proverbial monkey off their back, showing that the "third time's the charm."

Angels in 5