by Gregory H. Kim
The Role Players
Say it ain't So, Joe
Slamming the Door
Cleveland Rocks, Cleveland Rocks
So who wins?
Yanks in 7
A blog by a few guys just rambling about sports and other musings...
by Gregory H. Kim
by Jorge Feliz
This series pits the two powerhouses of the National League facing each other. They both had very easy paths to the playoffs, having amassed huge leads in the beginning of the season in their divisions. The Cardinals won the season series 5-2.
Will Chad Billingsley show up?
The Cardinals throw out two Cy Young contenders in this series. If the Dodgers want to compete, Chad Billingsley must return to being the Billingsley he was in the first half of the season ( 9-4, 3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), instead of the second half imposter (3-7, 5.20 ERA, 1.48 WHIP). There is no recent evidence, however, to suggest that Billingsley will return to form.
Who wins the battle of the pens?
While the Cardinals enjoy a clear advantage in starting pitching, the Dodgers bullpen was a half-earned run better over the course of the season than the Dodgers. Nevertheless, two interesting stats appear. Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin’s ERA rose from 0.79 in the first half, to 3.33 in the second half. The Dodgers’ Jonathan Broxton had problems of his own. Broxton posted a microscopic 0.40 RA at home, but a bloated 5.81 ERA on the road. As a Dodgers fan, how confident would you be with a one run lead in the ninth in St. Louis with Fat Albert coming up?
Manny vs. Albert
Due to injury and perhaps controversy, Manny didn’t live up to his name this year. Pujols, on the other hand, is going for his third MVP award. However, who can forget Manny’s 2008 postseason? Every ball he hit seemed as though it were launched from a cannon. If Manny returns to his 2008 form, the depth of the Dodgers’ lineup will effectively counter the Pujols/Holliday power punch.
And the winner is……..
Since neither of these teams have an advantage in hitting nor defense, it will come down to pitching. I don’t expect Billingsley to figure out his problems now. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright’s mastery coupled with Broxton’s ineffectiveness on the road leads to doom for the Dodgers.
Cardinals in 4
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by Gregory Kim
These two teams are familiar foes, having met in the postseason in the last two years. The Red Sox took care of business both times, 3-0 and 3-1. This year, the Angels took the series 5-4 in a closely played series with six of the games decided by one run or less. The Angels have home field advantage, as they are the winners of the AL West and the Red Sox claimed the AL Wild Card. As an avid Yankees fan, both of these teams scare me for different reasons. The Red Sox are scary for their short-lived air of superiority over the Yanks and the Angels for their knack for beating the Yankees every year. So who will come through and take the victory this year?
Can the Sox slow down the Angels' speedy running game?
Over the years, I have watched the Angels take first to third on Johnny Damon’s arm repeatedly and steal second base vs. Jorge Posada with repeated success. The Angels are known for pushing the envelope and their aggressive running style, ranking 3rd in MLB in stolen bases. The Sox have been one of the worst teams in throwing out base runners stealing bases, having caught only 23 base runners while giving up 151 SB for an atrocious (league worst) 13% success rate. If you also take into account the weak arm in CF, that is Jacoby Ellsbury, it looks like the Angels could have a field day on the base paths. It will be key for the Red Sox pitchers to keep runners off the base paths because Varitek and Martinez won't be throwing anyone out.
Is Josh Beckett OK?
Beckett has been the heir to the throne of the "Curt Schilling" Postseason Pitching Ace Award having compiled a 7-2 record with a 2.90 ERA (including two World Series titles). However, he has had an up and down season, being dominant at times and downright pitiful at times. On top of that, Beckett was pushed back in his last start due to back stiffness. Beckett is slated to start Games 2 and 5 in the ALDS on regular rest. Also, even though Jon Lester is slated to start Game 1 as the proverbial ace of the Red Sox, it is clear that the Sox will only go as far as Beckett takes them. If Beckett is on, the Red Sox will be difficult to stop. However, no one really knows his status.
Angels Bullpen vs. Fenway Park
In August, there was a big controversy as closer Brian Fuentes complained that the umpires were scared to call strike three vs. the Red Sox not once, but twice, in the ninth inning in a game the Angels went on to blow. I am not a big fan of defending the Red Sox in any situation. Even though I did see this game and agree that the calls were suspect at best (c'mon, it's Boston we're talking about), home field advantage is part of the game and an already shaky bullpen could be in big trouble if rattled by the Fenway Park atmosphere. Seriously, do the names Brian Fuentes, Jose Arredondo, Jason Bulger, Darren Oliver and the artist formerly known as Scot Shields really scare you? I think not.
Bottom Line
On paper, this series looks like it should be a fairly easy victory for the Red Sox. The pitching, matchups and postseason history all favor the Sox. The big difference, however, is that this Angels lineup is significantly different then past Angels lineups. The underrated addition of Bobby Abreu has changed the Angels from a free-swinging lineup to a disciplined lineup; with a league-ranked third OBP of .350. In addition, major concerns about the health of the Sox starting pitching and their ability to hold on runners could make the difference in this series. I'm going to go with the home field advantage, and predict that the Angels will shed the proverbial monkey off their back, showing that the "third time's the charm."
Angels in 5
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by Andrew Buhr
As someone who happens to own almost all of the Phillies on my fantasy team this year, I feel very qualified in relating my experience with all of you. The Phillies won the season series 4-2. What does that mean? You guessed right: NOTHING! Also, have you heard how hot the Rockies have been as they have won 20 out of their last 31 games? That must mean that the Rockies have a lot of momentum going into this series. You guessed wrong again. OK, so what are the real issues in this series? I’m glad you asked.
Can a pitching staff more unpredictable than AIG’s stock provide stability?
This series is more about the Phillies’ issues than anything the Rockies can do. I cannot remember one team’s pitching staff going through so much turmoil. Cole Hamels is starting in Game 1 and Cliff Lee is starting in Game 2. I would assume that Joe Blanton would get Game 3 and Pedro Martinez would take Game 4. For all of Cliff Lee’s prowess after the trade from Cleveland, he is 2-4 with a 6.13 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. Believe it or not, but Joe Blanton might be their most reliable starter. He had a streak of 13 straight quality starts snapped on September 10 and he is a workhorse. The Phillies are in a tough spot because Pedro Martinez is probably not going to get out of the fifth inning in Colorado and J.A. Happ has pitches 11.1 scoreless innings against Colorado this season.
Can the Phillies protect a three, two, one OK ANY LEAD?!?!?
One quick story: I went to a Phillies game versus the Mets a few weeks ago. The Phils had a 5-2 lead going into the ninth inning. Here begins the Brad Lidge experience. If you did not follow sports, you would have thought that the crowd noise would indicate the fans’ support for this guy. It was akin, however, to rooting for the Washington Generals or the Mets. You knew what was going to happen. After giving up two runs, the crowd couldn’t fake any more encouragement and “Lights Out” Lidge lived up to his nickname as Ryan Madson was brought in. After his perfect season last year, he has become the Vice President of the Shelled Closers Relief Fund along with Armando Benitez and Mark Wohlers. That is how bad it has become. The Phillies bullpen will be THE story of this series and I think it will end with Casey striking out.
Do the Rockies have enough pitching depth?
The Phillies, however, benefit from the Rockies’ shallow pitching depth. After ace Ubaldo Jimenez pitches, what is left are average starters and against a lineup that has the potential to score runs in a hurry, that is a scary proposition. The Rockies do not have many questions going into this series. Everyone knows what to expect out of them. They have an average lineup that cannot score enough runs to support their average starters after Jimenez. The Phillies have a huge advantage in power pitching because no one is going to be afraid facing the like of Marquis and Hammel.
Bottom Line
For all of the questions that the Phillies have, the postseason is about a good pitching staff shutting down lineups. While you would never bet the mortgage on any one Phillies game, you cannot discount what a huge advantage that Hamels/Lee/Blanton have over Jimenez/the pu pu platter. If the Rockies do not win Game 1, they are screwed. They need to win Game 1 and try to steal one of the next three. I am guessing Brad Lidge will never see the light of day in any game with a run differential less that seven. Wouldn’t it be great if Charlie Manuel decided to give J.A. Happ a chance to close since he probably will not start? But, hey, what the hell do I know?
Phillies in 4
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